Why aren’t there state-specific Success Probability targets?

The level of the Success Probability target scores within a state is determined primarily by the difficulty of the state test—that is, the percentage of students who pass and the average level of academic proficiency in the state. The more difficult the state test, the higher the Success Probability target scores will be. The wide variation in passing rates across states (percentages ranging from the 30s to the 90s) causes extreme variability in the levels of the target scores. For example, in a state where only half or fewer of students pass the state test, the level of benchmark test performance required to support a prediction of success is likely to be too high to be of practical value.

In contrast, At-Risk Screener target scores are less influenced by the difficulty of the state test; their values tend to stay within reasonable limits across states with different passing rates. Therefore, state-specific targets may be used.