Which targets should I use on the State Test Correlation Reports—Success Probability or At-Risk Screener?

The Success Probability targets directly address the question that most often is of concern to educators: What is the probability that students scoring at this level on the AIMSweb measure will pass the state test? The Success Probability targets are the preferred targets in most situations.

At-Risk Screener targets have the practical advantage of being tailored to individual states.

This is a beneficial characteristic in states where the passing rate is unusually low or high, because the Success Probability targets (which are national averages) will tend to overestimate or underestimate the probability of success. The At-Risk Screener targets are based on the methodology that has been used most often in published research studies that relate CBM performance to success on state tests.